online Kommuniteezer

2011-04-25T09:39:00.001-07:00

Google Rises to the Occasion - 4 Now

2008-04-20T17:06:00.000-07:00

This past week, Google's stock rallied after reports indicated that the current downturn in the US economy is not affecting Google's bottom line ability to generate online ad revenues. As reported by AFP:

Analysts credit Google's unrelenting focus on helping people find what they want on the Internet and then matching search results with online advertising they are likely to click on.
Google makes the bulk of its cash from "pay-per-click" advertising, and the company reported 5.19 billion dollars in revenue during the quarter while the US economy was rife with talk of recession.
"Google's business model is making sure advertising hits the mark," Global Crown Capital analyst Martin Pyykkonen told AFP.

While there is still much to be said about the prospects of the US economy, it is noteworthy that US ad revenues for Google were surpassed during the first quarter by international ad sales, specifically Europe, and that Google lost at Yahoo's expense, according to ad agency tracker and service provider SearchIgnite. But this does not by any means indicate that we are out the woods when it comes to the fickle tastes of web surfers and the volatility of the online advertising market.

Quoted today in the New York Times, front page editor Streeter Seidell of highly lucrative site CollegeHumor.com:

[The New York Times] said of us in 2007, “No one can accuse this site of not understanding Web video.” So we sure seem to know what we’re doing, huh?
To be honest, though, we don’t. Nobody in the online content business truly does.
The taste of the Internet user is as idiosyncratic as it is fickle. What is popular and funny one day could be clichéd and boring the next. (“Chuck Norris is so tough” jokes, anyone?) There are certain common traits of viral content that loosely guide our selections — it should be short, easily understood, universal, nostalgic — but for every hit sharing those qualities there are millions of similar failures, not to mention stuff that simply defies explanation.

This uncertainty in the online advertising market might bode well for Yahoo!'s latest positive data that might indicate a strengthening, especially against Google, and thus might increase Yahoo!'s bargaining power against Microsoft's buyout offer. As well, this past week, Yahoo! and Google formed a partnership of sorts around what amounts to Google AdSense ads appearing next to Yahoo! search results.

All of this indicates more and more that while Google, Yahoo!, and possibly Microsoft will continue to dominate online advertising revenues, the advertising pie - a limited pie even in good times - may be shrinking or let us say, not growing, in the next year and perhaps beyond, depending upon economic growth in the US and abroad.

It also indicates that there is no substitute for quality, and while the latest widget might create an online herd sensation and bring in dollars quickly, sustainable models will depend upon sustainable, quality content that is consistently in demand. In the end, the good news for content creators, including writers, artists, designers, musicians, and reporters, is that consistent quality will be rewarded over the long run, albeit, short run groundswells might create short-term profits that are enormous.

Mobile Communication and Developing Countries

2008-04-13T22:45:00.000-07:00

Today's Sunday New York Times (April 13, 2008) featured a piece in the NYTimes Magazine on the role that mobile communications - cell phones in particular - play in the developing world. The story focused on the efforts of Nokia 'ethnographer' Jan Chipchase (UK citizen) who travels the world to observe and record the peculiar uses of cell phones in developing countries - from Ghana, to Uzbekistan to Tajikistan and parts of Central and South America. Reports the Times:

"Several companies, including Intel, Motorola and Microsoft, employ trained anthropologists to study potential customers, while Nokia’s researchers, including Chipchase, more often have degrees in design. Rather than sending someone like Chipchase to Vietnam or India as an emissary for the company — loaded with products and pitch lines, as a marketer might be — the idea is to reverse it, to have Chipchase, a patently good listener, act as an emissary for people like the barber or the shoe-shop owner’s wife, enlightening the company through written reports and PowerPoint presentations on how they live and what they’re likely to need from a cellphone, allowing that to inform its design."

Clearly the 3.3 billion cell phone users worldwide and growing - faster than the growth of Internet subscribers - is testimony to demand by people all across the world, including developing countries where annual incomes are as low as $300 per year. Whatever the arguments may be about the metrics of comparisons between such annual incomes in developing versus developed countries, the fact remains that even in lower income economies, cell phones and voice communications appears to have a substantial value associated with it. One such value is theorized to be a kind 'just in time' transactions economy.

This 'just in time' economy manifests in a number of ways. One is the Grameen Phone model whereby a $150 phone 'kit' sold to primarily women, were then turned into a phone service for lease by the surrounding community whereby the women would quickly recoup their microloans used to finance the operations. Michael Mace, blogger on mobile phones, calls this 'spontaneous society' and makes a case for this growth based on the more 'realtime' centric societies.

Another example of a 'just in time' practice enabled by the cell phone is the idea of micro payments using the telephone as 'wallet.' This can involve a small purchase, or the payment of a debt. But the phone plays a critical role in such 'online' banking, and the article points out that estimates are generally high for growth in this area especially since 'latent demand' in rural parts of the world - including Africa - for banking services are so high, we will likely see a further rapid expansion of mobile phone purchases as this deman gets filled by users who want more than a leased line.

It is this 'just in time' thinking that will likely transform the developed world as well. Whether it is the kind of transportation system that depends on mobile communication verification of user credentials to 'ride share' or use a particular public transportation system; or the growth of mobile-based banking; it is clear that transactions will likely play a key role in mobile communications everywhere. What is not so clear is the separation between advertising-based models and membership/subscription based business models. If the Web of today (2008) is an indicator, then advertising would appear to be the safer bet. Yet, given the transactions-oriented use of 'just in time' mobile economics, it is not entirely clear that the advertising model will dominate mobile phone communications. Rather, it may be secure, branded, 'trust based,' subscription services.

Big Seven Mobile Broadband Developments in the Next Five Years

2008-04-06T22:11:00.001-07:00

Some of these already exist in some fashion or other; but usually not in a wider sense whereby there's a critical mass or a price point that makes this feasible. Here are my top picks for broadband mobile possibilities in the next five years:

1. Bluetooth 'smart' keyboard for an iPhone-like device. 'Smart' here means that the keyboard is big enough for clunky hands like mine, but maps back to a screen shot that highlights the relevant activity -- such as typing letters and words, or browsing with a mouse, etc.

2. Wimax or LTE and/or 700 MHz and/or broadcasters 'digital spectrum' networks that build on the existing Wifi infrastructure such that 'campus' environments are broadband wireless areas outside and indoors; and connected to larger urban and regional 'meshes.' Key interoperability agreements amongst the big telecom wireless providers (Verizon, AT&T, Sprint, T-Mobile) and wireline broadband providers - Time Warner, TCI, Comcast, Cox, Verizon (wireline), AT&T Cable, and others; leads to an acceleration of device innovation coupled with software apps on standard and stable mobile platforms. (I know, dream on).

3. Rapid advancements in security and identity management for major efficiency applications for mobile-based transactions. For example, 'shopping' in advance using a browser; and then picking up the groceries or other items in a drive through that avoids long lines and the items are pre-packaged for pick up.

4. Again, security and identity management advancements enable secure medical records for patient access and increasingly self management of these records for greater efficiency, reliability, and opening up new choices for patients who can seek feedback based on 'digital examinations' of records. In the longer run, mobile devices may be able to offer greater patient monitoring and sometimes diagnosis. But for immediate economic gains for all, the key is to tie identity management with standardized patient records. This creates new efficiencies for the industry and new opportunities for patients.

5. Municipal and informal transportation ride services. From GPS and real-time updates of a specific bus, train, plane, or related car for reliable and efficient travel that avoids driving; to mobile networks that are based and trusted verification processes and that allow travelers to 'hitch' a ride to virtually anywhere at nearly anytime with someone in the network based on some type of 'credits' or even monetary transfers. Additionally, it would be wonderful to see mobile communications provide daily biking commutes across cities whereby GPS and real-time prompts create efficient 'mass' rides -- efficient in that vehicular traffic is minimally disrupted and bikers are much safer riding as a 'mass.'

6. Reliable and standardized institutional and inter-institutional calendaring from mobile to Web to print.

7. Advanced voice recognition for voice and video, Web transactions, and for retrieving data.

I'm sure there's more ... but I guess those are my big seven broadband mobile wishes in the next five years.

#11 The Future of Online Communities

2008-03-30T21:18:00.000-07:00

This week we have a special focus on mobile communications, under the rubric 'the future of online communities,' featuring MobiTV's CEO and Founder Charlie Nooney. MobiTV provides reasonable high-quality cable TV and other TV-like programming for cell phones. We have also read the Aspen Institute's research on the 'mobile generation.' Already, both of these fairly recent entries to the market and today's discussion forums appear to be somewhat antiquated models of the coming changes brought on by mobile communications.

Clearly there will be a niche in the television transmission business as with MobiTV's business model and apparently superior video codec technology for mobile devices. Similarly, the Aspen Institute's research on how youth is using mobile technology makes some important points about how this technology is being used. As with Mimi Ito's research (Personal, Portable, Pedestrian; 2005) including her earlier research with Howard Rheingold (Smart Mobs; 2002), the emphasis on youth and the practices amongst youth point to a transformational device that has both personal associations (identity, style/fashion, aesthetics, taste, etc.) and functional tools (voice, web access, calendaring, SMS/texting, even GPS). Mobile devices are used by primarily youth, the research shows. Devices are used both for social and general communications, and for micro managing the day's activities and social calendar.

With the success of Twitter, which relies on the social network for its success as a tool; it should become increasingly obvious that the 'killer app' for mobile communications will likely be similar to the 'killer app' for the Web -- email. Mobile technology is wholly unique in that it is built on very rich two-way communications in the form of voice; and then adds to this the text and even graphical capabilities of the Web and all of the Web's affordances. This 'Webification' of cell phones is epitomized by the Apple iPhone. And while the iPhone is not as 'open' perhaps as Google and others supporting platform and device-neutral broadband networks aka 'open networks'; the iPhone is really the device to capture the imagination of the consumer and that demonstrates the shift from phones as extensions of proprietary telecommunications systems to extensions of an increasingly mobilized web.

Just in these past months we have seen the opening up of the wireless spaces as the 700 MHz auctions raised over $13 billion for the US Treasury; but much more importantly, it has created a real likelihood that the top bidder, Verizon, will create a new set of broadband spaces that will allow for non-Verizon devices (with a service fee; but device neutral). This will lead, according to Lawrence Lessig and others, a kind of explosion in innovation around devices as companies compete to create the most efficient devices.

At this time, we are at a point in time that is wholly unique regarding broadband mobile, and ubiquitous mobile technologies: global growth in mobile technology exceeds that of the Web. And the spread of the practices around mobile technology are diffusing rapidly throughout society, not only youth. The possibilities for content sharing and distribution, micro and regular transactions, and even identity management are intriguing, and therefore gaining a lot of attention.

#10: Online Advertising Rolls with the Punches

2008-03-23T21:53:00.000-07:00

This has been a dramatic couple of weeks for online advertising firms as lawmakers are starting to crack down on the online advertising aggressive tactics to mine user data, including companies such as Google, Yahoo, and Microsoft. Starting with states like New York and Connecticut, lawmakers are restricting the type of information that companies are allowed to glean from user's clicks and profiles on the Web. Reports the New York Times on March 20, 2008:

“A law like this essentially takes some of the gold away from marketers,” said Joseph Turow, a professor at the Annenberg School for Communication at the University of Pennsylvania. “But it’s the right thing to do. Consumers have no idea how much information is being collected about them, and the advertising industry should have to deal with that.”

Phorm meanwhile claims fo have a complete Open Internet Exchange (OIE) solution that manages to create a customer profile while protecting the security and privacy of the individual. Reports the New York Times (March 20, 2008):

"Phorm says its technology protects users’ privacy by creating a random number that is associated with a person’s Web surfing patterns, rather than using a person’s name or other information. Phorm puts a cookie, a small bit of computer code, on a person’s computer to tie his or her Web-surfing to the random number and then saves only that number in advertising categories like types of cars or clothing."

Google responded in kind, with a new tactic that more or less places a search window within a company's internal search such that the user ends up seeing Google ads from potentially - likely - competing companies. According to the New York Times (March 24, 2008):

"Analysts generally praise the feature as helping users save steps, but for Web publishers and retailers, there are trade-offs. While the service could help increase traffic, some users could be siphoned away as Google uses the prominence of the brands to sell ads, typically to competing companies.

“Google is showing a level of aggressiveness with this that’s just not needed,” said Alan Rimm-Kaufman, a former executive with the electronics retailer Crutchfield who is now an Internet consultant. Google’s aggressiveness, Mr. Rimm-Kaufman said, ignores a user’s desire to reach a specific destination and it costs those Web sites visitors."

Meanwhile, AOL bought out social network site Bebo, which has a large presence in the UK, for $850 million and Mashable finds it interesting that American Online should take on such a strategy outside of the United States of America. And the New York Times (March 19, 2008) reports that Yahoo and Microsoft may be entering a kind of gracious period of negotiations which resume this week, yet Yahoo released a 'rosy' forecast for the next year's revenue and profit growth ... while Yahoo's stock price is at $27 per share, below the $31 per share offer.

Back in May 2007 when Microsoft made by far the largest buyout in its history of $6 billion for aQuantive for the rather generous sum of $66.50 per share when their stock was at only $35.37 per share. This is nearly twice the amount Google paid for competitor DoubleClick which recently got clearance from the EU to go ahead with the buyout. To complement its aQuantive buyout, Microsoft bought out ad management and consultancy firm Rapt on March 14, 2008.

With all of the activity around online advertising and the connections to social networking sites and privacy issues, it will be interesting to see if this can hold out, or if we might just move to a mini-subscription model for traditionally 'free' online services -- including social network sites, widgets, email, and more ... I think I would be willing to pay some dollars per month to assure privacy, security, and the services that I need -- clutter free with only permitted advertising (perhaps with deductions for some advertising from the core per month bundled service fees).

#9b:Day Two: Notes from the eComm 2008 Conference

2008-03-13T09:04:00.000-07:00

Rich Miner, Google and formerly of ORANGE, on mobile innovation (less on Android): Openness and the Future of Mobile": Without openness, you inhibit innovation. The real problem isn't that there hasn't been innovation per se, but that it's escaped users -- getting it in the hands of consumers is almost insurmountable, due to market dynamics within the parameters of closed systems.

Mobile phones are as powerful as the PC in 2002, so very powerful. But what people can do with it, is still very limited ... from apps to 'ease of use,' the limitations are significant. It's important that the global mobile phone user market have access to apps and innovations.

Current barriers/constraints: screens sizes, input capabilities, lack of openness (platforms, networks, devices), working business models (distribution of apps, barriers to entry -- simply not easy to get to innovative apps).

UI Constraints: small screens, button sizes, design -->these problems are being resolved, according to Miner. Additionally, inputing data is not a problem for a very large (very young) demographic, e.g., inputing with device in the pocket.

Lack of Openness: Platforms are closed ... you can't develop for most phones; 'open platforms' are not open ... e.g., MS Windows Mobile ... but is there access to the OS and the source code? Lack of enablers -- location (who's near me, what's near me), billing (no way to transact easily). Porting Google Maps, for example, is difficult to port on different flavors of JAVA. Native OS like Symbian won't work with JAVA, although the phone may be JAVA based.

Business Models for Mobile: Confused relationship between OEM's and carriers; no one who understands the software; little power or freedom given to developers; complex singing process.

Hope on the Horizon: Mobile platforms are shifting to software developers, witness Apple's iPhone: great experience, seamless integration (including with Google, who worked with Apple, e.g., Maps, Address Books); powerful platform; 3rd party development. Android: Started on the premise of 'openness,' both deep and broad. It is a complete platform (open handset stack); the Open Handset Alliance; an SDK; $10 million competition to develop apps. 'It's everything you need to build a phone.'

Linux based; with a complete stack. But aren't there a lot of platforms out there? (J2ME, Symbian, Windows Mobile, Linux ... Open Moko?) Linux is only a small portion -- maybe 20% of the total stack ... so the Android stack integrates middleware that is open.

Ribbit (Chuck Waters, CEO): Telecom veterans together with Web 2.0 professionals -- added to a business model. App on the Web that is seamless or reproduced on the mobile device, value 'goes up.' Ribbit's API sits on a stack that includes XML, Flash API, DB Services, SIP, XMPP, Skype, MSN, Yahoo, and Saleforce Connector.

toktumi: Evolution of phones; stressing the significance of the iPhone. Why do we need both a laptop and a phone with a screen? We need the convergence of both -- . toktomi's business model: hosted services from toktumi (support, etc.) for small businesses that connect phones to a PC directly via a converter. (Poster's note: This does not appear to be a mobile solution, merely an office/stationary convergence solution.)

Yahoo Brickhouse (Evan 'Rabble' Henshaw-Plath): Code named 'fire eagle,' this initiative is all about location sensing and sharing this over the Web. Carriers want to pay what marketers want to buy, e.g., finding a Starbucks. But for consumers, it's more about finding each other and less obvious locations (unlike Starbucks which is all over the place). Fire eagle is comparable to a Facebook platform, with NO site, only the APIs ... this is not a 'client'. (hmmm ...) Here's what it does: takes location info in, resolves the location info, and spits it out; e.g., GPS device in --> SNS out. This might rely on cell phone tower locations that are sent to fire eagle, and then share this with friends. The idea is to make this 'ambient' and natural, and not requiring much 'push' or 'ping' by the user or those 'following.' Works with numerous platforms, including Movable Type.

NMS Communications (Brough Turner, CTO) has a radical approach to 'own' the network. Spoke on the market and the resultant bottleneck to the right of way for access to homes, e.g., running fiber to a home is a problem. Owning and controlling dark fiber is what NMS advocates.

Embarq (spin off of Sprint) -- deals with privacy and has a model for this. Privacy is a means of achieving security. Would we be willing to give up our privacy, if we were assured safety and security. Pointed out LifeLock company and its services, whereby the CEO displays his real social security number on the Web.

Fonolo appears to be a competitor to Skype. (Note: too busy with email to pay needed attention to the presentation).

Niche Markets and Mobile Technology -- panel discussion -- getting the carriers to add apps to a carrier's system, is like pulling teeth. High margin, small communities, like Chris Anderson (The Long Tail). What will you do if you want to add hardware to your niche app? Gumstix Goliath Board is the answer, according to the speaker. If you have a niche app, with motivated customers, and carriers are not interested; you can work with your customer to solve the problem. Speaker -- software is open. So, this is an open hardware system for mobile.

iSkoot -- a company that provides a Skype solution for mobile.

Chris Allen, iPhone Webdev from the security world of the 90s; now in the social software world. Considers the iPhone a useful social software tool. iPhone has 28% of market, compared to 41% for Blackberry, 9% Palm, and 7% for Motorola; iPhone has 71% of mobile internet usage, and a serious chunk of the ad dollars in mobile. SDK is available now; firmware will be available in June 2008 which will help accelerate enterprise level implementation. Includes access to the 3D graphic card, location information (Google Maps); accelerometer; iPhone media capabilities. Cocoa Touch; Media; Core Services; Core OS. Business Model: Developers distribute exclusively via iPhone Apps Store. Costs developers $99 for code signing; 70% of revenues to Developer; no fees (free apps allowed). Apps MUST be approved by Apple (no SIM unlocking; no malicious or illegal apps; no phishing; no porn; no executive code -- Java, Flash eg.; no VOIP via EDGE (Wifi ok); use only Apple APIs. Distribution restrictions (still open question); DivX or flv? Bluetooth such as external keyboard -- likely not available. 3G iPhone probably available before 2008's year end. iTunes App Store makes micro payments possible (!)

#9a:Report Notes from eComm 2008

2008-03-12T08:21:00.000-07:00

The eComm 2008 conference is about to begin, here in Mountain View, CA at the Computer History Museum which appears to be a hospitable location. Attendees are trickling in, and the conference founder and powerhouse Lee Dryburgh is quietly preparing for the introduction and working with the upcoming speakers. The auditorium is filling up, and I would guess the gender ratio is around 100 to 1, males to females. This is the inaugural event and it's a full house -- that says a lot.

Says Lee, VOIP is more or less over. It's not that exciting, and it doesn't solve a host of needs. 'We need something farther reaching ... something more transformative." We need a device that integrates content, entertainment, ecommerce, and social networks, adds Lee. But what is it? We need a 'Personal Lifecycle Device' as relationships become the #1 focus. "The telephone is dead," says Lee. The replacement is the exciting part; Google has released Android; T-Mobile and Sprint have joined in. The power of innovation is shifting to the edges. "Innovation and democratizing innovation" is the purpose of this assembly, according to Lee.

Jonathan Christensen of Skype is up, and makes the point that NetMeeting, a product he was involved in developing, is still being used despite no updates in nearly ten years. Jeffrey Pulver early inspirations: Min-X and voice minute exchange, and the 'Free World Dialup.' The VOIP revolution led to better pricing for consumers, but no real innovation. Christensen again repeated: 'The Phone is Dead.' Skype is the intersection of IM and IP, introduced in 2003 (IP therefore IM :).

Question from the audience: "What are the future plans for Skype now that it is part of eBay? It used to be the leader ..." Christensen: We are in a stall ... but this is the most exciting period for Skype ... they are groundbreaking projects .. can't talk about the specifics.

OpenMoko, Michael Shiloh: Open Source as much as possible; within business constraints. Allow for expansion -- allow to hack in; and you reduce the barriers to entry = innovation. The new Neo with wifi will be out in 'a couple of months' ... so the pic is the current, completely out-of-stock Neo 1.0. Love that Neo ...

David Isenberg: Author of The Rise of the Stupid Network. Care about the politics of infrastructure policies. Your job is at stake. "Not all packets are the same." We need the pipes separate from the apps -- instead of net neutrality, let's talk about structural neutrality. Double sided business model: YouTube pays to upgrade user's connections? "I don't understand the model well enough."

Presence: Jabber/Peter (co founder) ... 'dial tone for internet communication' ... shrinking in the half life of communication as bandwidth increases and goods and services can move across the globe ... dialtone is 'boring' .. but it is a catalyst for communication ... PSTN 'presence' indicates that there is a system out there, but not that anyone is on that system. Dynamic possibilities ... more than person-to-person and includes application to application ...

Thomas Howe: Draws an analogy with Paprika as a kind of parallel to the ARPU question. Voice is simply a commodity; and voice is simply a commodity. They increase their value in being generic. Branding is critical though for the carriers, similar to Virgin Mobile (Branson).

Vringo: Used for sharing video ... and video ringtones (?!). This is an example of a viral marketing model, relying not on payment. Rather, relies on advertising revenues. "Free and ad funded" is the future, according to Andrew Perlman. Q: How much are you anticipating wrt ad dollars? The current mobile ad market is very scarce -- 'CPM's are worth more on the Internet.

Boaz Zilberman of fring: A filesharing and integrated solution or 'VoIM service' (voice messaging solution). One of the most popular apps on the market today. Says that it provides 'free' calls, chat, and presence ... here's a YouTube video on using fring. Mentioned that Jooce is now mobile(!)

Phonefromhere: Works on the basis of embedding phone functionality into a website. How can this be 'better' than using a phone? Take MySpace where users discuss bands in a group; or LinkedIn where it's less about 'group' discussions. What triggers a call from a website? Speaker suggests that this can be similar to a Facebook 'poke.'

Dial2Do, CTO Sean O Sullivan: The US fell behind with GSM, but the US has always led in phone call pricing. US users speak more than others from around the world. Value adds in the US market make sense, therefore. Europe has high SMS and mobile voice charges.

Identity and Trust (BT, Piotr Cofta): Resides on the IP and TCP layers on the ISO layer model. Identity and trust are constructed to combat the growing complexity. Your identity is my perception of your persistent interacting 'whole' (IP). Identity is constructed as part of the identity. The bank 'card' is what constitutes this ... but it's really about services, and not one's identity. Identity is a communication shortcut. Identity encapsulates the past, defines a communication endpoint ... the future identity protocol is to do this more dynamically, beyond handing over or doing this with a card. There are many more issues, especially privacy. And what about group identity? Trust (TCP) is an expectation of predictable future behaviors of an intentional identity. There is nothing about benevolent behavior, merely future behavior that is predictable (i.e., 'I trust that you will kill me.').

IBM, Tony Nadalin (Trust/Identity): The problem remains trust and identity.

Young Generation and Communication Technology: Keynote: Dr. Norman Lewis, Chief Strategy Officer of Wireless Grid Corporation : It's not the content, it's the practices. Young females is the largest user base. Getting a response from your posts is an important acknowledgment of your existence. "It's all about them ... all about 'me'." It's about who's in and who's out .... who's part of the group and who's not. This is extremely relevant to the design of the devices and systems that are built in mobile technology. What do you DO with this technology? Through the tactile control you can exert over your environment around you that is key to this technology. "Me to the Power of Us." All of the devices can now be linked together. Mentioned the current implementation of its dorm-centric data system that allows students to share music and data in a central and decentralized wireless environment that allows sharing across devices: cell, computer, laptops, printers, and more.

Reflection #8: Mobile Heats Up

2008-03-10T10:04:00.000-07:00

In the past couple of weeks, there's been a lot of activity around broadband mobile that suggests strongly that mobile broadband will be integrating with Web 2.0 apps. This week I will be attending the eComm 2008 Conference (March 12-14, 2008) in Mountain View and will report on this blog about the developments.

I can't help but think of the changes that we have been seeing in the online advertising market, as the economics of 'search' transforms and there is a tacit recognition that the simple 'clicks' model is one of the past. Instead, we are today moving in the direction of profiling and all of the privacy baggage that comes with it such as what unleashed a backlash to Facebook's Beacon. This is underscored by the recent New York Times article (March 10, 2008) on this topic; write The Times: "The rich troves of data at the fingertips of the biggest Internet companies are also creating a new kind of digital divide within the industry. Traditional media companies, which collect far less data about visitors to their sites, are increasingly at a disadvantage when they compete for ad dollars."

I can't help but wonder if this point is one that should be on the minds of the Web 2.0 leaders with respect to mobile broadband versus traditional Web 2.0 access via less mobile devices and uses -- including 'mobile' laptops that are really about connecting while sitting at a cafe or other non-mobile environment. That is, it becomes increasingly important to start 'thinking mobile' in order to grasp the significance of the mobile technology revolution and its connection to Web 2.0.

The real change comes when the daily practices of mobile users -- truly mobile in the sense that these users are in motion, and their location and change in location over time becomes critical to the use of the connections, communities, and similar 'real time' activities over time and space. This change is a fundamental shift that should not be underestimated in terms of its significance. Instead of simply communicating with each other, members of a 'mobile community' now have the ability to assemble rapidly based on an event, a common spacial area that is occupied at the same time, or a set of transactions that can be conducted at a particular place and time.

This could be anything from the political revolutionary use of mobile technology that is discussed by those like Manuel Castells (Mobile Communication and Society) to the less political form of group formations discussed by Howard Rheingold in Smart Mobs that is in fact happening as we speak. Such spontaneous formations are harbingers of both organized and spontaneous assemblies of people with common goals or with interests or with transactional needs. The examples currently are crude and somewhat few -- for example, a group of students whom I know of from a recent speaker at USC actually contact each other via text messaging whenever one of the twelve leaves a parking space at the university parking lot -- and waits until one of the members comes by to fill the spot -- to park there.

Some of the companies, apps, and initiatives in mobile broadband that are worth noting:

Obopay: Obopay is the PayPal of mobile technology and is being used by Citibank, Verizon, and others to enable transactions from your mobile phone. Such a transactional system is critical to everything from paying for a load of groceries that are pre-ordered (via mobile or the web) and picked up in the back and paid for with a simple 'zap.'

Yahoo! onePlace: Based on a robust profile, the user is able to connect to local points of interest and commerce sites based on the profile. This could be the beginning too of a way to connect with others on the basis of the profile -- especially as these integrate with social network sites.

Yahoo! oneConnect: This is the first step for Yahoo in terms of the latter above, connecting people with people based on mobile device connections.

Ribbit/Amphibian: This company and app claims that it is a mobile-based web 2.0 company. Basically, this company takes the Skype concept further by integrating all voice services into a web interface. This allows for cell calls to come in on a web site, or for land line phone calls to operate side-by-side with a collaborative, web site for voice and data collaboration.

Additionally, in the past weeks, Apple has opened up its SDK or software developer's kit for the creation of customized apps for the iPhone, and Google has announced a mobile version of its off-line productivity tool relating to its suite of tools in Google Apps (Google Gears for Mobile) to complement its open SDK for broadband mobile code named Android.

Reflection #7: New Wave of Web 2.0 and Mobile 2.0

2008-03-03T13:34:00.001-08:00

One of my favorite sites right now is feedmyapp.com simply because it captures the sheer volume of new online applications that are hitting the market every day, and because it demonstrates the challenges ahead for anyone entering the online Web 2.0 fray. For one, Yahoo seems to have a lot of widgets or apps hitting the market, especially in the mobile technology sphere. For another, the types of applications hitting the market are becoming more and more sophisticated and database driven.

Certainly in this APOC cohort, we have all become familiar with the NetVibes application and we are becoming familiar with other ones daily. Similar to the NetVibes app, the new blog site Profy.com takes blogging a step further by giving users a more customized experience that is both easy to use and that has robust Web 2.0 features expected of a blog such as RSS feeds and archiving. Profy creates a system that seems to be more community oriented, and allows for greater integration too of different channels including mobile technology and more.

Another example of the surge in activity is epitomized by the Web-based OS called Jooce that let's users create a virtual OS that operates like a desktop --- assuming that the bandwidth is there. Clearly one of the problems with this system is the bandwidth, and the other that has folks like me concerned is security. Whether it's a complete reticence to create a NetVibes 'tab' for my online banking (!) or it's Jooce and the implications of where the data actually resides -- I'm not convinced yet that Web 2.0 apps will be safe and secure -- that is, reasonably safe and secure(!)

Yet another example of some interesting Web 2.0 'mash ups' with the enterprise are Google's recent release of Jotspot - a wiki system that is designed to compete with Microsoft's Sharepoint. While competing with Sharepoint may be a stretch, and while many have criticized Google for the complete muffing of the rollout -- for example, not including the actual 'wiki' piece (!) -- clearly Google has an interesting product for the enterprise .... assuming, of course, that the security piece is handled properly.

Another Web 2.0 application that can integrate with the enterprise is Wufoo which allows users to create online forms that are integrated into a database (!) and can retrieve scheduling reservations, event reservations, and much, much more. The question again: security. How secure is this system really and should an enterprise alert users that they are providing information to an outside service provider instead of the event hosting institution itself?

Finally, there is the ultimate in security questions at stake with Google's announcement of its 'health care database' that allows users to store medical data and records online. If and when this site and initiative becomes a full-fledged operational system is when I become convinced that the major security hurdles have been overcome. To put things into perspective though, I was not concerned about security in the 1990s, considering it to be overhyped. However, as I see the institutional perspective, I am convinced that security is mission critical to the sustainability of any Web 2.0 SNS. I also would say that security is necessary to protect individuals from advertising abuse in a way that is unique to the intensity of the competition for these dollars.

All together, this latest batch of Web 2.0 apps with a clear path toward mobile distribution, both from Yahoo - in terms of sheer apps - and Google - in terms of an 'open' platform (Android), suggests that we are at a critical point in the mashup of Web 2.0, mobile 2.0, and security.

Meanwhile, this week FirstMonday's March edition is very critical of the social implications of Web 2.0 and suggests strongly that it is merely a facade for exploiting labor. This is a must-read for anyone in this business or social construction for new media.

Reflection and Refraction #6: Immitation, Copy That?

2008-02-25T18:10:00.000-08:00

you'll be going out with radio
going out with disco
going out like bacchanal
i'll be going out with telephone
going out alone to the radar zone
it's all just inadvertent imitation
and i don't mean mine
it's all across this nation
if it's just inadvertent simulation
a pattern in all mankind
what's got the whole world faking?

Pearl Jam 1996 from the album No Code, Song 'Mankind'

What is missing from the lengthy discussions regarding intellectual property (IP) and copyright law including the amazing Creative Commons is a more fundamental examination of what we are as humans and what we do best as such, in connection with the exchanges, processes, and digital 'value' transfers that are under legal and philosophical review. Lawrence Lessig takes it all the way, and he more or less created an alternative structure to the existing copyright and IP system. And Henry Jenkins believes that US colleges and universities might benefit by going back to their historical antecedents, prior to WWII and the Cold War, to create a 'commons' for higher education research, instruction, and more. Meanwhile, Cory Doctoro w is more direct and suggests strongly that IP and copyright laws are a capitalist tool to be questioned, his USC 2006/2007 Annenberg course stands as a testimony to this trajectory.

Yet, there is something much more essential to the 'copyright' and IP domain. We all know about and grew up with 'copy cats' in school, and we all might have witnessed another aghast with horror at a sibling, neighbor, friend, or schoolmate whom they viewed derisively for their 'copying' of our clothing, consumer objects, music, movie tastes, manner of speech, cosmetics, and even 'our' word(s) - we ourselves may have been aghast for 'copying', or someone else at us for the blatant mimicry!

From experience, as a young kid growing up in Phoenix, coming to California meant seeing the kids from 'Dogtown' do crazy sh@t on their skateboards that we could only barely watch. But like a wildfire, the moves and spins made their way to Phoenix, and like the BMX bike culture nuances, the 'language' of the sport spread. And of course, anyone associated with the process felt that they were the true 'originators.'

So it was with some encouragement that I watched the recent Meet the Press (Sunday, Feb 24, 2008) when US presidential historian Doris Goodwin Kearns suggested that presidential elections are very unique, and that the candidates feed off of each other in a very unique way, ergo, plagiarism and such is not the issue. Kerns seemed on the one hand to be stoking her own mythologies that give reason for her 'presence,' and on the other hitting on what seems to be a common strain in nature and in the way that we as humans seem to behave. So maybe the US presidential elections of ideas, concepts, positions, representations, and other often multimedia depictions of the candidates and their 'representations' are not so unique. Maybe that's what we need to fundamentally nurture: our ability to mimic.

While I am not aware of an outright statement by Henry Jenkins that learning is essentially mimicry. Perhaps it goes without saying that how (well) we learn in schools and in higher education is really about emulating the knowledge held by experts. Whether we incorporate this knowledge, or it is assumed on average by prospective employers, the value of education is in the students' ability to apply what that they have been trained to mimic. And this is true too for less monetary pursuits upon graduation.

Equally matter of fact, from a biological perspective we are all about 'reproduction' and the replication of our genetic selves. DNA code replicates. That is what it does. It replicates. Duplicates. Copies.

Finally, we come to the philosophical underpinnings of our beliefs as a democratic republic. We believe in a nation for and of the people. This means that we are less concerned with large institutions per se, and rather in favor of the individual and the liberties of all. So why do we not have the courage to take the leap into that which we are by nature? What interesting exchanges of ideas, knowledge, fashion, language, economy, food, thoughts, representations, music, and more might we see and be in if we simply shift our focus toward the 'nature' of exchange and human 'core competencies'?

Reflection #5: The Auction

2008-02-18T22:16:00.000-08:00

here's the progress we have found (when the rain)
A way to talk around the problem (when the children reign)
Building towered foresight (keep your conscience in the dark)
isn't anything at all (melt the statues in the park)
Buy the sky and sell the sky and bleed the sky and tell the sky

Don't fall on me

Well I could keep it above
But then it wouldn't be sky anymore
So if I send it to you you've got to promise to keep it whole

Buy the sky and sell the sky and lift your arms up to the sky
And ask the sky and ask the sky

rem 1986 from 'Life's Rich Pageant'

Related to REM -- they will be apparently living by their words and releasing their latest video as open.

As the 700-MHz band gets auctioned off by the FCC in the weeks ahead, these UHF channels 52-69 represent 'white space' that's being left behind by the broadcasters in order for them to make the transition to digital transmissions of their programming. The 700-MHz band has been described as 'beach front' property on the electromagnetic spectrum that carries all types of wireless communications - from television, to radio, to emergency communications, to telephone, to cell, to cable television transponder uploads and downloads, to military communications, and more. While the definition of 3G and 4G wireless services has yet to be fully defined, it is clear that there is much activity afoot in providing ubiquitous wireless broadband including WiMAX, LTE, and Qualcomm's proprietary UMB 4G standard.

For one, Qualcomm has agreed to start supporting a chipset that includes EVDO, LTE, and UMB -- allowing for many more devices to work on numerous types of cell or broadband wireless networks, including Google's Android 'open standard' that is intended to help catapult Google into the broadband mobile market. Google has even pledged to wager up to $4.7 billion in the current 700 MHz FCC auction. Meanwhile, Microsoft also has a mobile strategy that oddly enough puts Microsoft and Google in agreement that the spectrum space should be opened up, similar to Lessig's call for a device neutral, open wireless network -- where use is not determined by licensing, rather, by the efficiency of the device. This may lead to an advantage by Google as it cleans up on the disarray that is today the Microsoft hostile buyout attempt of Yahoo! -- where Microsoft's business model is to sell software licenses, and Yahoo!'s is to sell advertising based on the use of free software.

Can these two models co-exist and complement each other in a broadband wireless distribution model that is open and determined on the basis of device competitiveness?

Very likely the answer is yes. Clearly there are contradictions in place, beginning with the idea that the television broadcasters are moving on to 'better' spectrum space, and leaving behind 'prime real estate' for broadband wireless -- two-way broadband wireless. So what does this mean for the new space that these companies will be using, and by the way, receiving because these companies 'provide for the public interest and expediency.' This means that they are fulfilling a public good that warrants 'free' use of the spectrum space. So what kind of stellar services will these companies provide that surpass the open broadband networks that appear to be emerging? We shall see ...

And how can Microsoft and Yahoo!'s sales and advertising models complement each other? Perhaps if Yahoo! provided a Web front end complete with an e-commerce and advertising and portal and email solution, while Microsoft provided the identity management and the intellectual property or internal knowledge and data services. This same basic symmetry could exist on the broadband networks, where some are used for open, community-based communications and others, at the flip of a switch and authentication, could be for secure, private communications.
And isn't this precisely how we lead our lives -- one that is open, communal, and public; and another that is private, secure, and personal?

Google definitely has the upper hand in its current dominance in online advertising. However, it may be that the rapid changes coming will require a Microsoft identity management and security system that Google cannot provide -- but perhaps they can. Either way, it is likely that both public and private; open and proprietary systems and distribution networks will coexist for the long term.

Meanwhile, today, the issue of digital rights (DRM) and the easy sharing and moving of content across devices is being enabled by DoubleTwist which exposed the Apple DRM (rendering it harmless and impotent).

For a great tutorial on the DMCA and how to avoid copyright infringement, click here.

Immersive Techno Terror! Threat Level: DEFCON 3!

2008-02-11T12:00:00.000-08:00

The Washington Post published a story on Feb 6, 2008 that discussed the US intelligence community's concerns around Second Life and similar 3D immersive environment's potential to serve as 'seedbeds for transnational threats,' including China's version of SL - HiPiHi.

Says the article,

["The virtual world is the next great frontier and in some respects is still very much a Wild West environment," a recent paper by the government's new Intelligence Advanced Research Projects Activity said.

"Unfortunately, what started out as a benign environment where people would congregate to share information or explore fantasy worlds is now offering the opportunity for religious/political extremists to recruit, rehearse, transfer money, and ultimately engage in information warfare or worse with impunity."

The government's growing concern seems likely to make virtual worlds the next battlefield in the struggle over the proper limits on the government's quest to improve security through data collection and analysis and the surveillance of commercial computer systems.]

TechDirt respectfully disagrees with the position of the United States security authorities.

Reflection #4: Viral Word-of-Mouth Marketing and Memes

2008-02-10T20:54:00.000-08:00

While there is much to be said about the importance of word-of-mouth and viral marketing when selling a product or service, the current state of this form of marketing remains extremely vague, albeit, the observation that new technologies are accelerating the spread of word-of-mouth and 'viral' concepts or communiques is correct.

Many authors have been quick to recognize the importance of this form of marketing, including Emanuel Rosen whose book The Anatomy of Buzz (2000) provides a kind of introduction to the concept of 'buzz' marketing that is steeped in concepts of viral marketing and word-of-mouth information flows. Broken into three parts, the book covers the essentials of what 'buzz' is and how it relates to networks, certain fashion leaders, and so on; how to be successful in different 'networks' especially through 'contagious' products or accelerating 'natural contagion'; and finally, in a typical marketingesque fashion, the book ends with a section on how to 'stimulate buzz.'

Similarly, in Naked Conversations (2005), the authors Robert Scoble and Shel Israel offer a kind of near marketing pitch for the destiny of blogs as a kind of end-all, be-all tool that is required for survival by any right thinking or 'sane' business today. Write the authors:

"Slowly, over time, that something impacts other things and before you know it the world a different place. Blogging is one of those “somethings.” It is vital and strategic to the future of business. Some who ignore this fact will face the same fate as the village blacksmith of the last century."

It is this kind of hyperbole and self-adoration of those who are blogging and using this technology that has the non-users and traditional media users and believers more or less wondering if anything has changed. That is, it's unlikely that an attempt to 'market' a new paradigm for 'marketing' whilst using the same hyperbole that has resulted in the more 'grass roots' dimensions of viral or word-of-mouth communications channels - 'marketing' channels if you like - will turn out successfully. More likely, the marketing professionals reading this kind of exaggerated account of blog culture and its significance for the institution will assume that the marketing puff effect is under way.

The real problem currently with the concepts around 'viral' and similar types of marketing is the near religious over- and undertones that this 'community' has struck; one that rings of a kind of corporate culture infiltrating the very purity that is word-of-mouth marketing - one that rose out of a basic peer-to-peer community of users that couldn't find the truth within the product provider's channels and support systems. This kind of 'webagoguery' appears self serving and a shallow attempt to gain contracts for book orders, company workshops, and speaking engagements - but not as a sincere effort to nurture real and meaningful feedback loops, new strategies for connecting with customers, and accelerating and strengthening such efforts. This near-religious fervor comes out in the 'Customer Evangelist Manifesto' and the 'code of conduct' for word-of-mouth marketing according to the WOMMA organization and its six items that constitute 'WOMMA 101.'

The real give away that this discussion of 'viral marketing' is something of a capitalist, money making scheme seems most obvious in the '95 Theses' from the Cluetrain blogsite. Here, you can read a list of everything and (virtually) anything that could possibly have an affect on your business - and that you should take these 'anythings' into account when communicating with your customers - and above all else - BE HONEST! Well, these 'theses' are all well and good; but aren't they a bit self serving and self righteous? I mean really, is someone going to read these and then turn around, and head into a meeting pontificating the importance of all of these 'theses'? Who is supposed to be reading these and deciding how to change? Or was this written for the writers and their circle or network?

'Ten Predictions for the Future' (2005) from the 'Connected Marketing' blog offers something of a more solid set of predictions, and suggests strongly that change will accelerate, and we will become more dynamic. I believe that the prediction around mobile technology "Prediction 9. Cell phones will develop rapidly as an important medium for spreading connected marketing promotions, such as mobile invitations, SMS barcode discounts, etc." is both simplistic, and true. It is simplistic because it ignores the dynamic nature of this medium, and how it relates to the flow of people and things and how these are essential to the context of messages on this medium. But the prediction is true, in that we will see growth. This is likely visible today with the rapid rise of Twitter.

This week we saw the emergence of a kind of 'live' YouTube; but not from Google - rather from Yahoo! and it is now active: Live.Yahoo.com In light of the phenomenal growth around YouTube and the seeming voracious appetite for immediacy in communication - it will be interesting to see whether this service morphs into a viral marketing tool, or just a blip in streaming and web history. I think that I'd be interested if there was a solid mobile piece, for true device interoperability and access --

Viral marketing and the concepts around 'wom' marketing are also not original, and go back to at least the concept of 'memes' as presented by Richard Dawkins (1976) in his book The Selfish Gene in which he describes the mimicry that is associated with how people form their ideas and opinions. Such mimicry is an innate part of humans, according to Dawkins, and later media author Doug Rushkoff picked up on this theme in his books Media Virus, Cyberia, and Coercion (1994, 2000) and presented a convincing case that the 'mediascape' was changing profoundly, and that it was no longer possible to create the kinds of illusions and monolithic (dis)information campaigns associated with broadcast television, radio, and other highly controlled, top-down media structures. Indeed, Rushkoff predicted the dissolution of these media and the rise of informal networks.

It would be interesting if the WOM marketing and 'viral' marketing communities and proponents could and would consider the self evidence of their observations, and to consider the real implications of such immediate and more efficient information dissemination and feedback loops -- beyond, 'tell the truth and be honest and listen and ... blah, blah, blah.'

MPAA Exaggerates Claim of Illegal Downloads

2008-02-05T08:44:00.000-08:00

CNET NEWS:

Research led by John Heidemann of USC's Information Sciences Institute was featured. Heidemann and colleagues found that between 3 percent and 13 percent of those connecting to USC's computer network were using peer-sharing technology that could be used for downloading pirated films and music. The Motion Picture Association of America (MPAA) has claimed that college students downloading movies on campus were responsible for 44 percent - or $572 million - of the industry's domestic losses to piracy. The MPAA's claims "did not hold in our analysis," Heidemann said.

The MPAA recently acknowledged that the figure was overstated, and now says that students account for 15 percent of domestic losses, the story reported.
http://www.news.com/8301-10784_3-9858416-7.html?tag=nefd.top

Yasoft! or Microhoo? And the Jenkins Milieu: Reflection #3

2008-02-03T13:47:00.000-08:00

"We can succeed only by concert. It is not "can any of us imagine better?" but, "can we all do better?" The dogmas of the quiet past, are inadequate to the stormy present. The occasion is piled high with difficulty, and we must rise -- with the occasion. As our case is new, so we must think anew, and act anew. We must disenthrall ourselves, and then we shall save our country."
Abraham Lincoln, Dec 1, 1862

There seems to be a continuum or at least a strange 'back channel' debate brewing around Web n-point-0 and its future -- there's a kind of twitter that has all a-jitter. I speak here of the recent statement by Google around the hostile takeover announced by Microsoft over search engine and 'web portal' competitor Yahoo!. The continuum that I reference here, is one that goes to the heart of the Jenkins discussions and his references to Pierre Levy's conceptions of 'community versus commodity.' In the following sense, quoted from the Jenkins article,

"Levy distinguishes between four potential sources of power - nomadic mobility, control over territory, ownership over commodities, and mastery over knowledge - and suggests a complex set of interactions and negotiations between them. The emergent knowledge cultures never fully escape the influence of the commodity culture, any more than commodity culture can totally function outside the constraints of territoriality."

So, on the one hand, Levy is clearly not 'enthralled' with the new communication constellation, for example, broadband networks and recognizes the inter- or arguably co-dependencies of the two systems coexisting. On the other hand, Levy seems to succumb to the utopianism that is uniquely American and that seems to temper the cold economic realities of online communities, and that Jenkins too seems to not fully accept, or perhaps, that he does accept but sees as something fundamentally unacceptable, and therefore should be manipulated accordingly.

I say this, because there does seem to be a great deal of subtext associated with the many discussion points raised by Mr. Jenkins, and also, the way that he has spoken on the subject of higher education and Web 2.0 (or 'n-point-0') - including this past week when I had the good fortune of hearing him at the ELI 2008 conference in San Antonio, TX, and in 2007 at the Annenberg Center on the YouTube University. And you all can have the opportunity to see Jenkins and others of his milieu, Feb 8-10, 2008, this upcoming week here at USC.

The main subtext that I refer to comes out in the lofty missive put out be Google that all but suggests that Google is above criticism and circumspection given the claimed way that Google will ride on its horse - way up high, on its very, very high horse. As with the immediate cynical reaction of many a critic to their corporate mission statement that "You can make money without doing evil," to the way that Google glossed over their dependence upon advertising revenues, many including TechCrunch are questioning Google's rather holier-than-thou attitude. I definitely wonder if Google, like Yahoo! before it, is self enthralled and cannot pull itself away from its own image - on a mirror that duplicates and morphs by the microsecond, and flickers in nearly every American home daily.

And it is precisely this self adoration that has many like me concluding that the 'media' as we know it is nothing more than a mirror reflection of all that we are to ourselves, while at the same time, a complete deception therefore of that which we 'really are.' This deception goes back much, much farther than the Web or multimedia.

In the 2oth Century alone it would seem that Adolf Hitler was quite the multimedia mashup artist, taking film, radio, and banners ( an important 'in real life' or IRL - in Rheingold speak - an important IRL harbinger) that mimic online icons and online banner ads in the form of swastika flags, pins, and banners across 1930s and 40s Germany; and it would seem that while at first rap music was considered something of a rip off of 'original' music; today is considered a precursor to the new millennium's 'mash up' culture phenomenon.

This self adoration seems to come up again and again in my short lifetime. Whether the so-called 'me generation' or the 'Pepsi Generation' that epitomizes the 1960s 'hippy' or 'SDS' or 'Baby Boomer' or whatever you prefer - this generation got seriously self absorbed and mesmerized by television and film, to the point that they too have succumbed to the seductions of watching oneself in the mirror. Whether the 'World's Greatest Rock 'n Roll Band' or the legendary 'Beatles' to the end all, be all event of 'Woodstock,' the 1960s generation is convinced that they are the most important generation that has ever walked the earth. This is what also gives Tom Brokaw the right to proclaim who is, after all, The Greatest Generation.

And now, beginning with the, in retrospect, rather pathetic early attempts by 'Generation X' to create an electronic neural network akin to Marshall McLuhan's Global Village, to the more pragmatist wing of the 1960s generation in the form of Stewart Brand's Whole Earth Catalog that brought us Howard Rheingold's beloved 'WELL,' to the Millennials or those in the generation featured in the recent PBS 'Growing up Online'; they all seem strangely and naively self enthralled to the point of obscene. Indeed, there is nothing necessarily obscene about the way that this new American generation interacts and the messages that they send amongst themselves. Rather, it is the predictable conclusion that they reach that is more difficult to swallow -- they seem to be completely self absorbed with themselves in a way that is uniquely American, or perhaps Western, or perhaps 'modern.'

What is more, this type of self absorption seems to be supported by those like Danah Boyd who comments in the PBS Frontline 'Growing Up Online' in a way that suggests that the real issue is one that is framed and encouraged by the traditional, television media (the one that has Boomers and X'ers self enthralled) - that it is a matter of 'yes or no.' That is, in a predictable American tradition, it is either 'good or evil,' as with the War on Terror, Star Wars, Christianity, and a host of other American dominant cultural narratives.

But it is precisely this sterilized version of what 'Growing up Online' means that this blog will implicitly and explicitly challenge; for we know that the world that we live in is not as simple as 'yes or no.' We know that pop culture, Christianity, free markets, advertising, and academia are alone and together much more than 'good or evil.' We also know that this world is at once a very, very harsh place and a very, very gracious and lavish place. Where we land is not necessarily up to us -- and while Jenkins and his milieu suggest strongly that we need to participate in the new media, excuse me if I hold my tongue while the chips are still falling.

All of this is to say that McLuhan's definition of 'media' is much broader than the discussion today that picked up primarily on his electronic network predictions. But the images, for example of 9/11 and NYC, are just as much a distinctly non-American viewpoint of capitalism as they are an attack on innocent American women, men, and children. That is, we have come out of a 'cold war' that clearly involved some very stark and awful images of what the ultimate 'medium' of a nuclear bomb or worse, set of nuclear bombs (nuclear 'media') would mean to the recipients of the not-so-subtle message.

So, yes, the 'medium' remains the message. But the question now, beyond the theoretical extremes of the distinctly binary trajectories of those like Jenkins and Boyd, is much closer to Manual Castells' question around the emerging (and arguably 'real') "Networked Society"; where he asks [paraphrased] -- 'What does it mean to really accept others? Can you really accept that the way others see the world is as legitimate as your way of seeing the world?'

I'm not sure I have the answer -- but I'll have a different point of view [guaranteed!] -- riding home on a crowded bus filled to the brim with differences and different people - after a day's work than right now, sipping a glass of wine on a Sunday evening!

2008 Horizon Report from The New Media Constortium and ELI

2008-01-29T19:28:00.000-08:00

Top Six Key Emerging Technologies
"The technologies featured in the 2008 Horizon Report are placed along three adoption horizons that represent what the Advisory Board considers likely timeframes for their entrance into mainstream use for teaching, learning, or creative applications. The first adoption horizon assumes the likelihood of entry within the next year; the second, within two to three years; and the third, within four to five years."

Grass Roots Video/DIY Video
Collaboration Webs
Mobile Broadband
Data Mashups
Collective Intelligence
Social Operating Systems

See the Full Report (PDF)

Anecdotal/Observable New Technologies:

Twittering was huge
blogs remain strong
wikis are strong and steady
Second Life is still strong in discussions
Apple looks good this year

Check out a map of where we really are and headed (PDF)

Feb 8-10 at USC - 24/7 a DIY Video Summit

2008-01-29T11:47:00.000-08:00

Featuring Lawrence Lessig, Henry Jenkins, John Seely Brown, Joichi Ito, and many other great leaders and do'ers in the 'do it yourself' media movement.

Feb 8-10, 2008

To Register ($25 for Students; $50 for others) Click Here

Henry Jenkins ELI 2008 Podcast Presentation: What Wikipedia can Teach Us about New Media Literacies

2008-01-29T07:17:00.000-08:00

Click for Podcast

Report from ELI 2008: Belle Wheelen

2008-01-29T06:09:00.000-08:00

Currently presenting on 'Accountability in Higher Education,' Belle Wheelen (President, Commission on Colleges, Southern Association of Colleges & Schools and former Secretary of Education of Virginia) spoke of the enormity of 'twittering' while she presented - as a point of levity - in the context of student preparedness in IT coming out of high school and going into higher education. The key missing ingredient, according to Wheelen, is critical thinking skills. In order for this to happen - to change - we must change the way that faculty approach students.

Wheelen discussed the role of global competition, and our diminishing role and ability to keep up, including the types of jobs that American students are able to fill, versus students from other countries. One point here, that the blog poster makes, is that in the past years the New York Times reported on Sunday, 27 Jan 08 reports that "Many of the foreign students we shunned after 9/11 are now in London and Berlin: twice as many Chinese study in Europe as in the U.S. We didn’t educate them, so we have no claims on their brains or loyalties as we have in decades past."

Prescriptions:

1. Service Learning: Students need to know what is happening in their community to appreciate the context of globalism. Course content and curriculum should be linked to local conditions to promote service learning
2. Basic strategies that assure that students actually matriculate. There are students who don't know how to ask questions, and who never get the strategies that lead to success in test taking.
3. Work with minority students while still in K-12 system to ensure they are college ready and prepared to enter higher education.

National Conversation - Spellings Commission:

Access
Affordability
Private loans vs. federal aid
Accountability (student learning outcomes; national tracking system)
Transparency (grad rates; job placement rates)

According to Wheelen, these are at face value useful guidelines -- but the 'devil is in the details' and led a backlash because of the unrealistic uniformity of a single standardized set of tests. There was a major pushback from higher education because of the way that the Commission went about this. The Higher Education Act has not been reauthorized, thus the Commission Report (Sept 06) was the only guiding document. Accrediting community met with Spellings in Nov 2006 with 200 people were in the room. When it came time for questions, no one had questions -- so Wheelen said: Appreciation for being at the table; second -- accreditation is about continuous improvement -- 'you mentioned a summit, can you talk about that?' 'Yes,' said Spellings, 'That depends on what happens here today.'

Responses to the Spellings Report:

ETS Report
more -- all of the same issues originally identified by Spellings Commission, but with a different approach
Truly focusing on student outcomes

"Your institution is one that students want to be ---"

Growing Up Online

2008-01-28T11:49:00.000-08:00

In case you have missed this, PBS Frontline is running a program 'Growing Up Online' sponsored by the MacArthur and Park Foundations. The episode is available for viewing online.

I have yet to see it, and will post the review -- anyone who has seen this program -- reviews are welcomed!

Blogospheric Pressure - Reflection Paper #2

2008-01-27T22:01:00.000-08:00

After all of the West Coast rains of this past week, including the deluge of bad news around the housing market and the concomitant Wall Street downpours, it's great to be in San Antonio, Texas reporting from the Educause Learning Initiative (ELI 2008) where Henry Jenkins of MIT will be keynoting tomorrow -- I expect that Dr. Jenkins will continue his dialog on the "YouTube University" that can be taken as a complete overhaul of higher education, or as a parallel, albeit, transformational model for higher education and how 'teaching, learning, and research' co-exist and interact.

This week's blog talk - something fairly new for me to scan in this way, that is, as I understand it for this class and program; seemed abuzz with the weekend victory in the South Carolina Democratic Primaries for the Barak Obama for President campaign. Indeed, no longer does this election seem to be a given in terms of the Democrats or Republican candidates. This too seems to resonate with the recent mainstream media coverage, notably the New York Times on a kind of pessimism in the United States amongst voters, and in terms of a possible seachange as American hegemony wains.

So is America - first the Democrats, and then the larger voting population, going with Obama? Clearly it's far to early to tell, and likely the Democratic nomination will be played down to the wire, where Hillary Clinton or even John Edwards could win the nomination due to unforeseen circumstances and certain developments in the weeks ahead. Indeed, it's not clear what the hell is going on out there anymore, and it feels more and more that the institutional foundations below us are quaking and shaking as the word 'change' echoes through the speeches and stumps featuring Barak Obama, and possibly next, more and more, John McCain on the Republican side.

If this kind of upheaval is to be realized in the polls in November, and if indeed the United States is in the fight of its short life to define itself as truly exceptional - then the rains of this month might prove to be an important harbinger for growth in the Spring and Summer. We shall see indeed, and this may prove to be an important unifying force for the next important candidate. Judging from the comments on YouTube, people seem jazzed about prospect of Obama. I checked DIGG for some interesting stories and came up empty. Please share if you have anything on the elections.

Here's a great set of shots and links on the rather stinky Web of 1996 -- enjoy.

Reflection Paper of January 22 2008, posted after the fact

2008-01-27T21:57:00.000-08:00

Reflection Paper for Week of Jan 22, 2008: INTRO TO ONLINE COMMUNITIES CMGT 534 (North)

Favored Blog:

Of the different blogs available, I would like to propose the Movable Type (MT) blog available through USC's Web Services (currently in beta). The reasons for this are as follows:

· MT is a robust blog environment that is hosted by TypePad already, but that is also in beta locally at USC and hosted by Information Technology Services (ITS). This local hosting allows for direct feedback for the nuances of usage here at USC toward a robust set of options available to the wider USC community.

· MT is already used by the School of Cinematic Arts' Interactive Media Division (SCA's IMD) for their 'active' or 'live' website (http://interactive.usc.edu/). This same model can be applied to the APOC program.

· MT was used by the Annenberg Center and managed by the Annenberg School. Thus expertise lies with the IT department at Annenberg, and this may provide impetus to migrate the Center's old site(s).

· Given the above, there is a local 'community of practice' already in place, consisting of end users and IT support persons. This CoP around MT can be developed toward reaching a critical mass that embraces the benefits of a blog environment - one that exposes the student to the outside world of experts.

As a runner up, I would propose Blogger.com because it is known to many users and also enjoys a wide and local 'community of practice,' especially in light of the Google Apps at USC rollout that will likely include blogger (and the JotSpot Wiki very soon).

But here I am ... a week later using Blogger.com ... in the end, it's just easier to use and available.

Favored Wiki:

Having used Confluence, WikiMedia, and WetPaint, I am partial to these. However, I have no real preference and I am eager to learn about other wikis, especially PBWiki. However, when it becomes available, I was very pleased with the JotSpot Wiki before it was purchased by Google. As part of Google, it is under wraps but is rumored to be very robust as a collaborative environment.

Blog Sites:

OK -- I clearly didn't get this assignment the first time ... I got it now. Having missed some key information the first day of class made it crazy.

1. TechCrunch: An excellent business oriented feed that covers the social software aspects of corporate America (and the world) without abandoning the essential ingredients of openness and modularity associated with Web 2.0.

2. PaidContent.org: Another business oriented blog feed, but with a more social economic bent and a more global bent. I am only getting oriented with this site, but appreciate the business models that are made clear on this site. For example, the recent earnings report from Apple that looks at the granular details of where the earnings are coming from, and why these are likely to decline or at least forecast to decline in the year ahead.

3. Engadget: I use this site often for reviews on the latest and greatest electronic gear, from computers to handhelds, from projectors to rear-projection monitors; and into the realm of camcorders, digital cameras, and more. This site is invaluable for understanding and comparing different electronics for specific applications and uses.

4. Mashable: I read this feed daily, and have this on my Facebook site. It is a great overview of what is happening in the world of Web 2.0 as companies and widgets collide. Mashable is my favorite Web 2.0 feed, and never fails to be first -- well, most of the time!

5. Digg: I am not a regular of Digg, and do understand its principles. I am drawn to its founder, Kevin Rose, who has persevered despite his 'age' (not so old here, but in Web 2.0 terms, he's ancient) and succeeded! Rose debunks the overarching Gen X traits of base greed and shallow commitments to principles and ideas. Digg itself seems very time consuming -- I need to revisit it more often to build a better understanding.

Next Generation Media: The Global Shift:

While this paper is an excellent statistical overview and inspiring textual review of the "Internet" and how the next generation of media, including Web 2.0/social software, mobile technology, and e-commerce is 'transforming' how we interact and share knowledge; alas, it remains largely hyperbole filled with references and 'expert' assessments from persons who only recently accepted the significance of what they claim to prognosticate.

The pinnacle of this contradiction comes with the concluding remarks from former FCC Chair Reed Hundt, who concludes that 'new media are creating a new vision of the relationship between the individual and society.' It is extremely difficult to take Mr. Hundt seriously when one considers (and having lived through) his tenure as FCC Chair during the explosion -- ground zero -- of the Internet and World Wide Web during the early 1990s and extending through into the new Millennium. At that time, as with Vice President Gore, Mr. Hundt was focused primarily on cable television and accommodating the old media guard, especially the networks. With respect to the Web or Internet (or the Information Superhighway or National Information Infrastructure, as it was called then), Mr. Hundt and Mr. Gore were primarily interested in the 'clipper chip' and in providing the United States federal government with the ability to monitor all data flows on the Web or Internet (or NII). Indeed, their 'vision' was one that was very much in favor of government control, and this was clearly also borne out by the types of regulatory decisions and ideas proposed by Mr. Hundt. What is more, once he left his post, Mr. Hundt immediately provided consultation services to the cable and private sector entities that he and the FCC had (and the FCC continues to) control.

To be sure, while Bill Clinton was clearly a visionary and understood the significance of the Web; he certainly did not support the idea of a direct democracy via the Web or in the form of the "Open Source Democracy for the Digital Age." And arguably with good reason; perhaps best underscored when one considers that it was Ross Perot who supported such a move in the 1992 US presidential elections -- and no other candidate.

As with the Perot proposals of the early 1990s around such a direct democracy system supported by Web technology, the debate and discussion completely skirts the critical essence of the foundations of the United States republic and democracy -- which is founded on the principle of representational democracy. This principle was alluded to as a kind of bullet point made by Reed Hundt (again, discrediting much of its meaning) but not as a historical tenet of the United States democracy and republic. It does seem essential that first the topic of direct democracy versus representational democracy be exhaustively debated and discussed before the technology is literally thrown at this question without regard to who we are and where we came from as a nation.

Aside from these observations and criticisms, I found the data on the mobile technology to be somewhat misplaced. Clearly we should not be seeking more hyperbole -- at the same time, the data suggests a sea change and it would have been helpful to the reader to understand more about the implications of mobile technology rather than as an afterthought for the 'magnificence' of the Web.